The Week Ahead - Key market data and events Macro Thoughts will be focused on

Article about The Week Ahead - Key market data and events Macro Thoughts will be focused on

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May 31, 2021

Key market data and events Macro Thoughts will be focused on

  • We were right in our forecast for a weaker Dollar, but has anyone noticed? USD has been sinking fast – at the beginning of April we recommended following USDCNH rather than DXY, USDJPY & EURUSD, as the Yuan had reversed its correction to trade lower. As we forecast, USDCNH has since fallen over 20 big figures, adding over 3% to prices for US buying of Chinese commodities & goods. We don’t believe that this week’s unemployment data will have any significant influence on the Fed’s June decision, however they have been surprised by the rise in CPI and should be highly concerned over the rise in producer costs (which we forecast and have been warning of over the past 6 - 9 months)
  • BOE again reading Marco Thoughts? Haldane and Vlieghe warned inflation risks may be similar to the 1970s & 1980s
  • Biden’s policies are dwarfing Trump’s, and so is the debt – his $6tn proposed budget spending is 50% higher than pre-COVID Federal spending. The costs are set to rise and growth may not be as strong as the White House expects. $88bn is set to be spent on transportation, including the modernisation and infrastructure of 20k miles of roads & 10 bridges deemed most economically significant and repair of the worst 10,000 smaller bridges
  • French Budget minister Dussopt said the deficit is expected to reach around Eur220bn in 2021
  • UK Chancellor Sunak said a deal could to be done with the US on tax, but in return for backing Washington's corporation tax proposals, big tech firms would have to pay their fair share
  • Since our May 25 report, ‘Going Unnoticed’, GBPJPY has broken out to the highest levels since 2018, moving up 2 big figures during the second half of the week....we maintain our short, medium and long term targets, potentially 168 and beyond…
  • FedEx will increase 3 peak surcharges on Express and Ground shipments from June 21, including an additional handling surcharge, a residential delivery surcharge & a peak surcharge for Ground US domestic residential packages
  • Footlocker inventory levels are down 30% yoy for Q1 2021, related to congestion at West Coast ports
  • Despite semiconductor shortages impacting on car manufacturing, Toyota (whose policy it is to hold larger inventories, having previously been affected by several natural disasters) announced its global sales in April doubled from a year earlier, to almost 860k units, a record-high for the month, with robust demand from the US & China. Nevertheless, Toyota will suspend operations at two plants in Japan for up to eight days in June. Japan has extended its COVID state of emergency to June 20
  • NZ’s Ardern & Australia’s Morrison have met in Queenstown this weekend for their first talks in person since COVID. Despite extremely strict COVID border controls, it is being reported that only just over 4.2 million Australians (of a population of around 26 million) and only 4.5% of eligible New Zealanders have been vaccinated. India has promised to double its vaccinations in June to 150 million 
  • West African leaders to hold a summit (ECOWAS) in response to Mali's second coup in nine months
  • Israeli PM Netanyahu’s 12 year tenure may end, following failure to provide a coalition since the March election. It is suggested by a spokesman of opposition leader Yair Lapid that Gideon Saar, head of the rightist New Horizon party, could be PM for 15 months, followed by Netanyahu for two years & then far-right politician Naftali Bennett for an unspecified remainder of the term
  • Switzerland & the EU ended seven years of trade treaty negotiations without any agreement
  • Following a meeting with the Polish Foreign Minister over the weekend, China has invited ministers from Serbia, Hungary & Ireland to visit between May 29 to May 31, in an attempt to gain support for an investment agreement the EU had withheld ratification for in response to China’s sanctions against members of the bloc (along with the US & UK), following their own sanctions, related to human rights abuses in Xinjiang
  • In a letter to the World Symposium for Marxist Political Parties, Xi Jinping is reported to have stated that Marxism is full of vitality in 21st century China and called for developing the doctrine to make it shine brighter
  • The EU failed to agree to reforms to the bloc's farming subsidy programme (Common Agricultural Policy), with talks due to resume in June on rules to protect small farms and curb agriculture's environmental impact. With elections in September & the rise of the Green Party, Merkel is working towards a greener agenda, but has pushed back against the UK’s push for tougher corporate climate change rules; she also announced a new Eur1.8bn NordLink green power line to Norway
  • UK DMO will hold 19 Gilt auctions between July & September, the longest maturity being a new 50 year Gilt (G 1.625% 2071), with 3 new conventional issues on July 1 (2025), Sept 1, (2029), Sept 7 (2071)
  • Chinese Manufacturing (NBS & Caixin) PMIs may have contracted in May, being impacted by higher commodity prices – Industrial Profits slowed considerably in April
  • Only three central banks moved rates in May - Armenia, Brazil and Iceland - all raising



Tuesday RBA, Bailey

Wednesday Lagarde, Beige Book

Thursday Bailey

Friday RBI CB, Powell, Lagarde



Monday: CAD PPI, Raw Material Prices, Current Acct

Tuesday:  ISM, Manuf PMI, Construction Spending, Dallas Fed, Logistical Index, Vehicle Sales, CAD GDP, Manuf PMI

Wednesday: MBA Mort Apps, CAD Building Permits

Thursday: Challenger, ADP, Jobless Claims, Services & Composite PMI, Unit Labour Costs, ISM Non Manuf

Friday: NFP, Unemploy, AHE, AWE, Factory Orders, Baker Hughes, CAD Unemploy, Ivey PMI


Events and speakers: Monday Holiday, Tuesday Brainard, Wednesday Beige Book, Evans, Bostic, Thursday Bostic, Quarles, Friday Powell


Tuesday: Nationwide HPI, Manuf PMI 

Wednesday: BRC Shop Price Index, Consumer Credit, Bank Lending, M4, Mortgage Lending & Approvals

Thursday: Services & Composite PMI

Friday: Vehicle Sales, Construction PMI


Events and speakers: Monday Holiday, Tuesday Bailey, Thursday Bailey
Auction: Wednesday Gilt 0.25% 2031, Gilt 0.875% 2046



Monday: EA Loans, M3, GER, ESP, Various CPI, GER Import Prices, PORT GDP
Tuesday: EA CPI, EA, GER, Various Unemploy, Manuf PMI, ESP Tourist Arrivals, ITL GDP, PORT Ind Prod, Budget Bal, CHF GDP, Retail Sales, Procurement PMI

Wednesday: EA PPI, GER Retail Sales, FRA Budget Bal, ESP Unemploy

Thursday: EA, GER, Various Services & Composite PMI

Friday: EA, FRA, Various Retail Sales, EA, GER, Various Construction PMI, GER, Various Vehicle Sales


Events and speakers: Wednesday Lagarde, Weidmann, Friday Lagarde
Auction: Wednesday GER 5yr, Thursday FRA 10yr, ESP 3yr, 5yr, 10yr



Monday: China Manuf & Non-Manuf, Compsite PMI

Tuesday: Caixin Manuf PMI

Thursday: Caixin Services & Composite PMI


Monday: JAP, S KOR Ind Prod, JAP, S KOR Retail Sales, JAP Housing Starts, Construction, AUD Private Credit, Manuf Index, NZ Building Permits, Consumer Conf, INDIA GDP, Infrastructure Output, Govt Budget Value, ZAR Trade, BRL Debt-to-GDP

Tuesday: JAP Capital Spending, JAP, AUD. INDIA Manuf PMI, INDIA, S KOR Trade, AUD Building Permits,Inventories, Gross Company Profits, CPI Gauge, NZ Trade, Global Dairy Prices, BRL GDP

Wednesday: AUD GDP, Construction Index, 

Thursday: JAP, AUD, INDIA Services & Composite PMI, AUD Trade, Retail Sales

Friday: JAP Household Spending, AUD Home Loans, Investment Lending, INDIA Deposit & Loan Growth


Events and speakers: Tuesday RBA, Wednesday RBA Chart Pack, Debelle, Thursday BRL Holiday, Friday RBI
Auction: Thursday JGB 10yr



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Articles authored by Georgina Curran