Kavan Choksi Shares Insights on the Impacts of Fed's Quantitative Easing

The Federal Reserve, often called the Fed, is a crucial system in stabilizing the nation's economy. As they navigate the ups and downs of economic activity, their main tool for influence is the Federal Funds rate, which adjusts the short-term interest rate. When inflation is a concern, the Fed may raise rates, while lowering rates can incentivize investment. But what about affecting long-term rates? Enter quantitative easing (QE) or tightening (QT). This approach involves buying or selling government securities and other financial instruments, significantly impacting the federal budget. Business management and wealth consultant Kavan Choksi says while QE and QT are not the first line of defense in monetary policy, they often come into play when other actions have been exhausted. So, whether you're well-versed in economics or simply curious about how the Fed works behind the scenes, understanding the role of QE and QT is crucial for grasping our nation's economic landscape.

Quantitative Easing (QE) versus Quantitative Tightening (QT)

In today's economic landscape, QE and QT are more than just alphabet soup. They represent opposing actions that can significantly impact interest rates and financial well-being. QE, or quantitative easing, involves the Fed buying assets to reduce longer-term interest rates and stimulate economic growth. On the other hand, QT, or quantitative tightening, means the Fed is selling assets to put upward pressure on longer-term rates. When used appropriately, QE can be a powerful tool to lift the economy from a slump, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. With the Fed's securities portfolio surpassing $8.5 trillion in March 2022, it's clear that QE is not just an idea but a reality with the power to move markets (source: Congressional Budget Office).

To keep inflation at bay and calm an overheated economy, the Federal Reserve began utilizing QT in 2022. This process involves shrinking the balance sheet by allowing assets to mature off the central bank's portfolio or sell them. However, the unintended consequence of QT is that it leads to higher longer-term interest rates than would otherwise exist, which can reduce domestic investment and consumer spending on durable goods and housing. Although it may seem counterintuitive, such measures are necessary to prevent economic overheating and inflation. So, although QT may have some short-term pain, it ultimately promotes long-term economic stability.

Quantitative Easing (QE) sends a powerful message to global markets.

Central banks like the Fed have a secret weapon up their sleeves when it comes to influencing the markets - quantitative easing (QE). By buying assets and keeping interest rates low, they send a strong message to market participants: We're not afraid to do what it takes to stimulate economic growth, even in times of uncertainty or crisis. Bill Merz, head of fixed-income research at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis, notes that this signaling effect has been the most influential component of QE thus far. With its ability to address immediate concerns and prevent even worse crises from occurring, QE has become a powerful tool in the central bank's arsenal. As Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust in Philadelphia and a prior economic advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, says, "QE is both a shield and a sword in the battle for economic stability" (source: FORBES).

The Impacts of Quantitative Easing (QE)

Quantitative easing may sound like a complex economic concept, but at its core, it's simply a matter of the Federal Reserve purchasing large amounts of assets in the open market. By injecting money into the economy through these purchases, the Fed can help stimulate economic growth and counteract times of crisis. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed purchased long-term Treasuries and commercial bonds to help stabilize the markets.

But how exactly does this process work? Kavan explains that by creating bank reserves, the Fed can create money out of thin air, giving financial institutions increased cash reserves to lend to consumers or companies, buy other assets, or hold onto until the economy stabilizes. It's a simple concept with powerful results and a testament to the importance of a strong Federal Reserve in maintaining a stable and prosperous economy.

Liquidity is the holy grail of the financial world. And when the liquidity in the financial system increases, it's like a shot of adrenaline for the economy. Kavan adds that it prevents problems such as the dreaded credit crunch, which can cause loans to dry up and borrowing criteria to skyrocket. It means businesses and individuals can't access the necessary resources to keep things moving. But when liquidity increases, money can go around, and financial markets can operate smoothly. One of the ways to boost liquidity is by lowering interest rates, which allows consumers and businesses to take out loans more cheaply. And when investors start moving their assets into higher-returning assets, like stocks, the overall stock market could see some strong gains.

As the adage goes, confidence is key—and in economics, it's no different. With the Federal Reserve's implementation of quantitative easing (QE), the markets and broader economy have been given a much-needed shot in the arm, inspiring newfound confidence in business leaders and consumers alike. By easing concerns around the stability of financial systems, more stakeholders may be willing to take greater risks in investing, borrowing, and expanding their operations, which can stimulate growth in the economy as a whole. Whether hiring new staff, increasing production output, or boosting consumer spending, the possibilities for revitalization are vast—a promising sign for America's markets.

Does QE work?

Quantitative Easing, or QE, has been hailed as an effective policy aiding the economy by lowering interest rates and revitalizing the stock market. However, Kavan stresses that the broader impact of this policy on the economy is not as clear-cut. It's been observed that certain individuals benefit more than others, such as borrowers over savers and investors over non-investors. While QE has helped combat major financial crises like  COVID-19, its long-term effects on asset prices could create a bubble in the market. The cost of this policy also adds to the gap between income inequality. Experts agree that QE may have been "hugely effective" in the early stages of the crisis, but its overall impact necessitates further evaluation.

Quantitative easing is a powerful tool to stimulate the economy during tough times. However, once the market has stabilized, there are risks involved with continuing to rely on QE. One major concern is that it could create a bubble in asset prices, benefiting those who don't necessarily need the most help. This policy also adds to the already significant imbalances in income inequality within the country. Additionally, there are worries about relying too heavily on QE and setting unrealistic expectations within the markets and the government. There is a fear that an explosion in the money supply could harm our currency, although this hasn't happened dramatically yet. While QE can be useful in certain situations, it's important to consider the potential risks and long-term effects before relying on it too heavily.

Kavan Choksi is a successful investor, business management, and wealth consultant. Working strategically with companies across fast-moving consumer goods, retail, and luxury markets — he leverages his vast experience to help clients turn around and revitalize their businesses.

With his expertise in economics and finance, Kavan has developed a passion for investing over the years and enjoys helping others do more with their money.

He provides thoughtful commentary to publications such as CNBC, Fox Business, Forbes, Business Insider, CEOWORLD Magazine, International Business Times, Financial Express, and The Epoch Times. Kavan is also a regular contributor to Nasdaq, where he shares his expert insights on what's moving markets and the global economy.